Urban spatial epidemic simulation model: A case study of the second COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing, China.

The second COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing was controlled by non-pharmaceutical interventions, which avoided a second pandemic. Until mass vaccination achieves herd immunity, cities are at risk of similar outbreaks. It is vital to quantify and simulate Beijing's non-pharmaceutical interventions to find effective intervention policies for the second outbreak. Few models have achieved accurate intra-city spatio-temporal epidemic spread simulation, and most modeling studies focused on the initial pandemic. We built a dynamic module of infected case movement within the city, and established an urban spatially epidemic simulation model (USESM), using mobile phone signaling data to create scenarios to assess the impact of interventions. We found that: (1) USESM simulated the transmission process of the epidemic within Beijing; (2) USESM showed the epidemic curve and presented the spatial distribution of epidemic spread on a map; and (3) to balance resources, interventions, and economic development, nucleic acid testing intensity could be increased and restrictions on human mobility in non-epidemic areas eased.

Impact of vaccination on kinetics of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 by Serum live neutralization test based on a prospective cohort.

How much the vaccine contributes to the induction and development of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) of breakthrough cases relative to those unvaccinated-infected cases is not fully understood. We conducted a prospective cohort study and collected serum samples from 576 individuals who were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain infection, including 245 breakthrough cases and 331 unvaccinated-infected cases. NAbs were analyzed by live virus microneutralization test and transformation of NAb titer. NAbs titers against SARS-CoV-2 ancestral and Delta variant in breakthrough cases were 7.8-fold and 4.0-fold higher than in unvaccinated-infected cases, respectively. NAbs titers in breakthrough cases peaked at the second week after onset/infection. However, the NAbs titers in the unvaccinated-infected cases reached their highest levels during the third week. Compared to those with higher levels of NAbs, those with lower levels of NAbs had no difference in viral clearance duration time (P>0.05), did exhibit higher viral load at the beginning of infection/maximum viral load of infection. NAb levels were statistically higher in the moderate cases than in the mild cases (P<0.0001). Notably, in breakthrough cases, NAb levels were highest longer than 4 months after vaccination (Delta strain: 53118.2 U/mL), and lowest in breakthrough cases shorter than 1 month (Delta strain: 7551.2 U/mL). Cross-neutralization against the ancestral strain and the current circulating isolate (Omicron BA.5) was significantly lower than against the Delta variant in both breakthrough cases and unvaccinated-infected cases. Our study demonstrated that vaccination could induce immune responses more rapidly and greater which could be effective in controlling SARS-CoV-2.

Quantifying human mobility resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of Beijing, China.

Human mobility, as a fundamental requirement of everyday life, has been most directly impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing studies have revealed its ensuing changes. However, its resilience, which is defined as people's ability to resist such impact and maintain their normal mobility, still remains unclear. Such resilience reveals people's response capabilities to the pandemic and quantifying it can help us better understand the interplay between them. Herein, we introduced an integrated framework to quantify the resilience of human mobility to COVID-19 based on its change process. Taking Beijing as a case study, the resilience of different mobility characteristics among different population groups, and under different waves of COVID-19, were compared. Overall, the mobility range and diversity were found to be less resilient than decisions on whether to move. Females consistently exhibited lower resilience than males; middle-aged people exhibited the lowest resilience under the first wave of COVID-19 while older adult's resilience became the lowest during the COVID-19 rebound. With the refinement of pandemic-control measures, human mobility resilience was enhanced. These findings reveal heterogeneities and variations in people's response capabilities to the pandemic, which can help formulate targeted and flexible policies, and thereby promote sustainable and resilient urban management.

Recent Developments in Fermented Cereals on Nutritional Constituents and Potential Health Benefits.

Fermentation is one of the most economical and safe methods to improve the nutritional value, sensory quality and functional characteristics of raw materials, and it is also an important method for cereal processing. This paper reviews the effects of microbial fermentation on cereals, focusing on their nutritional value and health benefits, including the effects of fermentation on the protein, starch, phenolic compounds contents, and other nutrient components of cereals. The bioactive compounds produced by fermented cereals have positive effects on health regulation. Finally, the future market development of fermented cereal products is summarized and prospected.

Urban spatial epidemic simulation model: A case study of the second COVID‐19 outbreak in Beijing, China

The second COVID‐19 outbreak in Beijing was controlled by non‐pharmaceutical interventions, which avoided a second pandemic. Until mass vaccination achieves herd immunity, cities are at risk of similar outbreaks. It is vital to quantify and simulate Beijing's non‐pharmaceutical interventions to find effective intervention policies for the second outbreak. Few models have achieved accurate intra‐city spatio‐temporal epidemic spread simulation, and most modeling studies focused on the initial pandemic. We built a dynamic module of infected case movement within the city, and established an urban spatially epidemic simulation model (USESM), using mobile phone signaling data to create scenarios to assess the impact of interventions. We found that: (1) USESM simulated the transmission process of the epidemic within Beijing;(2) USESM showed the epidemic curve and presented the spatial distribution of epidemic spread on a map;and (3) to balance resources, interventions, and economic development, nucleic acid testing intensity could be increased and restrictions on human mobility in non‐epidemic areas eased.

Kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Specific and Neutralizing Antibodies over Seven Months after Symptom Onset in COVID-19 Patients.

To assess the persistence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies produced by natural infection and describe the serological characteristics over 7 months after symptom onset among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients by age and severity group, we followed up COVID-19 convalescent patients confirmed from 1 January to 20 March 2020 in Jiangsu, China and collected serum samples for testing IgM/IgG and neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 between 26 August and 28 October 2020. In total, 284 recovered participants with COVID-19 were enrolled in our study. Patients had a mean age of 46.72 years (standard deviation [SD], 17.09), and 138 (48.59%) were male. The median follow-up time after symptom onset was 225.5 (interquartile range [IQR], 219 to 232) days. During the follow-up period (162 to 282 days after symptom onset), the seropositive rate of IgM fluctuated around 25.70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.72% to 31.20%) and that of IgG fluctuated around 79.93% (95% CI, 74.79% to 84.43%). Of the 284 patients, 64 participants were tested when discharged from hospital. Compared with that at the acute phase, the IgM/IgG antibody levels and IgM seropositivity have decreased; however, the seropositivity of IgG was not significantly lower at this follow-up (78.13% versus 82.81%). Fifty percent inhibitory dilution (ID50) titers of neutralizing antibody for samples when discharged from hospital (geometric mean titer [GMT], 82; 95% CI, 56 to 121) were significantly higher than those at 6 to 7 months after discharge (GMT, 47; 95% CI, 35 to 63) (P < 0.001). After 7 months from symptom onset, the convalescent COVID-19 patients continued to have high IgG seropositive; however, many plasma samples decreased neutralizing activity. IMPORTANCE The long-term characteristics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among COVID-19 patients remain largely unclear. Tracking the longevity of these antibodies can provide a forward-looking reference for monitoring COVID-19. We conducted a comprehensive assessment combining the kinetics of specific and neutralizing antibodies over 7 months with age and disease severity and revealed influencing factors of the protection period of convalescent patients. By observing the long-term antibody levels against SARS-CoV-2 and comparing antibody levels at two time points after symptom onset, we found that the convalescent COVID-19 patients continued to have a high IgG seropositive rate; however, their plasma samples decreased neutralizing activity. These findings provide evidence supporting that the neutralizing activity of SARS-CoV-2-infected persons should be monitored and the administration of vaccine may be needed.

How did human dwelling and working intensity change over different stages of COVID-19 in Beijing?

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed human daily activities significantly. Understanding the nature, causes, and extent of these changes is essential to evaluate the pandemic's influence on commerce, transportation, employment, and environment, among others. However, existing studies mainly focus on changes to general human mobility patterns; few have investigated changes in specific human daily activities. Based on one-year longitudinal mobile phone positioning data for more than 31 million users in Beijing, we tracked intensity changes in two basic human daily activities, dwelling and working, over the stages of COVID-19. The results show that during COVID-19 outbreak, human working intensity decreased about 60% citywide, while dwelling intensity decreased about 40% in some work and education areas. After COVID-19 was under control, intensity in most regions has recovered, but that in schools, hotels, entertainment venues, and tourism areas has not. These intensity changes at regional scale are due to behavior changes at individual scale: about 43% of residents left Beijing before COVID-19, while only 16% have returned back; all commuters decreased their commuting times during COVID-19, while only 75% have reverted to normal. The findings reveal variations in human activities caused by COVID-19 that can support targeted urban management in the post-epidemic era.

Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China.

The first wave of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in China showed there was a lag between the reduction in human mobility and the decline in COVID-19 transmission and this lag was different in cities. A prolonged lag would cause public panic and reflect the inefficiency of control measures. This study aims to quantify this time-lag effect and reveal its influencing socio-demographic and environmental factors, which is helpful to policymaking in controlling COVID-19 and other potential infectious diseases in the future. We combined city-level mobility index and new case time series for 80 most affected cities in China from Jan 17 to Feb 29, 2020. Cross correlation analysis and spatial autoregressive model were used to estimate the lag length and determine influencing factors behind it, respectively. The results show that mobility is strongly correlated with COVID-19 transmission in most cities with lags of 10 days (interquartile range 8 - 11 days) and correlation coefficients of 0.68 ± 0.12. This time-lag is consistent with the incubation period plus time for reporting. Cities with a shorter lag appear to have a shorter epidemic duration. This lag is shorter in cities with larger volume of population flow from Wuhan, higher designated hospitals density and urban road density while economically advantaged cities tend to have longer time lags. These findings suggest that cities with compact urban structure should strictly adhere to human mobility restrictions, while economically prosperous cities should also strengthen other non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the virus.

COVID-19: Challenges to GIS with Big Data

The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused more than 100,000 people infected and thousands of deaths. Currently, the number of infections and deaths is still increasing rapidly. COVID-19 seriously threatens human health, production, life, social functioning and international relations. In the fight against COVID-19, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and big data technologies have played an important role in many aspects, including the rapid aggregation of multi-source big data, rapid visualization of epidemic information, spatial tracking of confirmed cases, prediction of regional transmission, spatial segmentation of the epidemic risk and prevention level, balancing and management of the supply and demand of material resources, and social-emotional guidance and panic elimination, which provided solid spatial information support for decision-making, measures formulation, and effectiveness assessment of COVID-19 prevention and control. GIS has developed and matured relatively quickly and has a complete technological route for data preparation, platform construction, model construction, and map production. However, for the struggle against the widespread epidemic, the main challenge is finding strategies to adjust traditional technical methods and improve speed and accuracy of information provision for social management. At the data level, in the era of big data, data no longer come mainly from the government but are gathered from more diverse enterprises. As a result, the use of GIS faces difficulties in data acquisition and the integration of heterogeneous data, which requires governments, businesses, and academic institutions to jointly promote the formulation of relevant policies. At the technical level, spatial analysis methods for big data are in the ascendancy. Currently and for a long time in the future, the development of GIS should be strengthened to form a data-driven system for rapid knowledge acquisition, which signifies that GIS should be used to reinforce the social operation parameterization of models and methods, especially when providing support for social management.

Screening and management of asymptomatic infection of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) / 中华预防医学杂志

To date, the controlling of outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has entered into a critical period in China. Recently, work resumption and public place is planning to open outside of Hubei, suggesting an uncertain and complex development of the epidemic in the next stage. Few days ago, we conducted a study on the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of asymptomatic infections of COVID-19, and found them might be the infection source. We believe that the findings are critical for developing public health intervention strategies for controlling COVID-19 infection in the future. Screening among the high-risk population and improving the sensitivity of measurement may contribute to the detection and management of asymptomatic infection.

Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China.

Previous studies have showed clinical characteristics of patients with the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the evidence of person-to-person transmission. Limited data are available for asymptomatic infections. This study aims to present the clinical characteristics of 24 cases with asymptomatic infection screened from close contacts and to show the transmission potential of asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carriers. Epidemiological investigations were conducted among all close contacts of COVID-19 patients (or suspected patients) in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China, from Jan 28 to Feb 9, 2020, both in clinic and in community. Asymptomatic carriers were laboratory-confirmed positive for the COVID-19 virus by testing the nucleic acid of the pharyngeal swab samples. Their clinical records, laboratory assessments, and chest CT scans were reviewed. As a result, none of the 24 asymptomatic cases presented any obvious symptoms while nucleic acid screening. Five cases (20.8%) developed symptoms (fever, cough, fatigue, etc.) during hospitalization. Twelve (50.0%) cases showed typical CT images of ground-glass chest and 5 (20.8%) presented stripe shadowing in the lungs. The remaining 7 (29.2%) cases showed normal CT image and had no symptoms during hospitalization. These 7 cases were younger (median age: 14.0 years; P=0.012) than the rest. None of the 24 cases developed severe COVID-19 pneumonia or died. The median communicable period, defined as the interval from the first day of positive nucleic acid tests to the first day of continuous negative tests, was 9.5 days (up to 21 days among the 24 asymptomatic cases). Through epidemiological investigation, we observed a typical asymptomatic transmission to the cohabiting family members, which even caused severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Overall, the asymptomatic carriers identified from close contacts were prone to be mildly ill during hospitalization. However, the communicable period could be up to three weeks and the communicated patients could develop severe illness. These results highlighted the importance of close contact tracing and longitudinally surveillance via virus nucleic acid tests. Further isolation recommendation and continuous nucleic acid tests may also be recommended to the patients discharged.